( OKLAHOMA CITY) – There is little doubt that 2008 will go down in history as a year wreaked with economic turmoil for most Americans. The New Year generally brings hope and confidence; however, as 2009 nears, financial optimism is low.

According to the 2009 Oklahoma Economic Outlook Poll [1] , which surveyed members of the Oklahoma Society of Certified Public Accountants, 53 percent of respondents indicated they were “optimistic” for the future of their organizations, compared to 58.7 percent from last year and more than 60 percent from the 2007 Oklahoma Economic Outlook Poll. Only 11.1 percent selected that they were “very optimistic,” compared to 17.4 percent from last year and more than 21 percent from the 2007 survey. Less than 20 percent said they thought Oklahoma’s economy would be improved, a drop of nearly 18 percent from last year, and a drop of approximately 34 percent from the 2007 poll. Additionally, more than 54 percent indicated the state’s economy would get “worse” or “much worse,” an enormous jump from the compared to 17.5 percent from the 2008 Oklahoma Economic Outlook Poll. Last year, 43.7 percent of respondents said Oklahoma’s economy would stay the same. This year, only 25.7 percent forecasted no economic changes for 2009.

Additional key findings include:

·            Economy and health care were seen as the most important issues facing Oklahomans (in open-ended responses for “other,” many cited infrastructure or roads and bridges as another important issue);

·            More than half of the respondents expect “fewer jobs” (48.2 percent) or “much fewer jobs” (3.4 percent) while less than 15 percent expect expansion in the Oklahoma job market;

·            About half (51.9 percent) said they expected minimal change in spending for advertising, sales and marketing;

·            About one-third said they expected to moderately increase spending in information technology;

·            More than half of the respondents expect health care costs to increase at least 5 percent;

·            Due to increased costs, almost half of the respondents (49.4) said it is “somewhat likely” that employers will begin eliminating health care coverage in the near future;

·            About 23 percent of respondents indicated increased concern for foreign competition and trade issues; and

·            In a ranking of 10 different industry sectors, energy, health care and information technology were ranked highest in demonstrating most economic improvement. Not surprisingly, real estate, construction and financial services were ranked as demonstrating the least amount of economic improvement.

Of those predicting an unchanged Oklahoma economy, a few CPAs, like Dick Kostboth, a tax director with John M. Arledge & Associates, PC in Edmond, Okla, said the key in turbulent times is to remain calm.

“I may be in a minority; however, I believe that as long as the general population doesn't hit the proverbial panic button that our economy will stay on a fairly even keel,” Kostboth said. “I believe that there are segments of the economy that are declining but that there are segments which are still improving. I believe these two forces tend to cancel each other out.”

Although most respondents said they expected employers to begin eliminating health care benefits, some, like Janice Johnson, CPA, indicated that scenario was “somewhat unlikely.”

Johnson, a controller with Rush Metals in Billings, Okla., said “I work for a manufacturing company. Two of our biggest problems have been maintaining a stable work force and foreign competition. I would expect those problems to continue in 2009.”

Similarly, Rob Sellers, CPA, a chief financial officer with GEA Rainey Corporation in Catoosa, Okla., said employers were “not at all likely” to begin eliminating health care coverage.

“Health coverage is provided due to competitive pressures for retaining employees rather than the cost of providing the benefit,” Sellers said.

Other members cited low-cost insurance programs, like Insure Oklahoma, or employers asking employees to pay higher premiums or deductibles as alternatives to eliminating health benefits.

The annual poll surveys OSCPA members on a variety of current and future economic and business issues.  

“Our members are financial experts in all areas of Oklahoma, including college professors, CEOs, CFOs, controllers, tax consultants, auditors … the list grows each day,” said OSCPA Executive Director Daryl J. Hill, CAE. “Because they work everyday with other business officials, community leaders and consumers, they are able to logically evaluate the economy and offer keen insight into our markets.

“Though many of our members say they expect things to get worse before they get better, they also offer sound advice for businesses and consumers to finding financial stability in tough economic times.”

With more than 6,500 members in public practice, industry, government and education, the OSCPA is Oklahoma’s only statewide professional association of CPAs. For 90 years, the organization has continued to provide professional education, conducted quality reviews and promoted and maintained high standards of integrity and competence within the accounting profession. Visit www.KnowWhatCounts.org for a free CPA referral, a free 30-minute consultation and more information on business and consumer services.

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